Amidst the tumultuous political landscape, one thing remains steadfast: Trump's support holds firm even after his conviction, according to the latest revelations from Emerson College Polling. But as third-party contenders emerge, and with President Biden's approval ratings teetering, the nation braces for a seismic shift in the upcoming elections.
In the latest findings from Emerson College Polling, Spencer Kimball, the executive director, shared that Trump's support remained consistent even after his conviction. Interestingly, while a majority of Democrats expressed decreased likelihood of supporting Trump (51%), a majority of Republicans (55%) indicated increased support. Among independents, a plurality (41%) stated that Trump's conviction had no impact, while 38% were less likely to support him and 21% more likely.
When third-party candidates were factored into the ballot test, Trump's support dipped by two points to 44%, and Biden's decreased by seven points to 38%. Notably, six percent showed support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., while 1% each favored Cornel West and Jill Stein. Nine percent of respondents remained undecided.
President Biden's job approval stands at 37%, with a disapproval rating of 53%. Kimball highlighted that suburban voters favored Trump over Biden by a margin of 48% to 44%, with a noticeable gender gap: suburban men leaned towards Trump (57% to 35%), while suburban women favored Biden (53% to 38%). Among independent voters, Biden held a slight lead over Trump (43% to 41%), with 17% undecided.
The national survey conducted by Emerson College Polling on June 4-5, 2024, involved a sample of 1,000 registered voters with a credibility interval of +/- 3 percentage points, similar to the margin of error. Data sets were weighted based on gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region using 2024 registration modeling, with turnout modeling derived from U.S. Census parameters and voter registration data.
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