In a stunning shift, Donald Trump now leads Kamala Harris in national polls, marking a four-point swing as early voting shows unexpected GOP strength in key battleground states.
Just days before the 2024 election, a New York Times/Siena poll shows Donald Trump edging out Vice President Kamala Harris in a close national race. The poll, released Friday, puts Trump at 47% and Harris at 46% when third-party candidates are included, marking a four-point swing since early October, when Harris led by three points.
In a head-to-head scenario excluding third-party candidates, the NY Times poll finds the race deadlocked at 48% each. This represents another three-point gain for Trump since the previous poll. Recent momentum has moved the RealClearPolitics average of polls to a tie, with both Harris and Trump at 48.5%. Until just two weeks ago, Harris had maintained a narrow lead.
Trump's momentum extends beyond national numbers. In swing states critical to his campaign, early voting trends suggest a GOP advantage, notably in North Carolina and Nevada, where Republicans are leading the early vote — a rarity for the party. Meanwhile, recent polling shows Trump in the lead across key battleground states.
Adding to the tight race, both candidates are neck and neck in favorability ratings, with each polling at 48%. This polling comes at a time when voter enthusiasm appears high among Trump supporters, underscoring a close race that will likely come down to the wire.
With the final days of campaigning underway, both candidates are doubling down in battleground states, each vying for the edge in what’s shaping up to be one of the closest elections in recent history.
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