Amidst fluctuating poll numbers, President Trump maintains a lead in key swing states, sparking intrigue and analysis in the latest RealClearPolitics breakdown.
Tom Bevan, president of Real Clear Politics, discussed the results of a recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll on the RealClearPolitics radio show. The poll shows Trump leading Biden in six out of seven swing states, and Bevan compared these results to the polling averages.
"Trump is leading in six of the seven swing states, but he lost ground in five of them. He gained a point in Michigan and a point in Pennsylvania, but lost ground elsewhere. In Nevada, for instance, what was an eight-point lead last month has now turned into a tie," Bevan explained, noting an eight-point swing in the state over the past four weeks.
"This is why we average the polls," added Carl Cannon.
"According to our RealClearPolitics Average of all seven swing states, Trump is up by 3.0%. This lead appears small but stable and relatively durable," Bevan concluded.
Here are the RealClearPolitics averages compared with the latest Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll for the seven swing states as of May 23, 2024:
- **Arizona:** RCP - Trump +4.6 / Bloomberg - Trump +5.0
- **Nevada:** RCP - Trump +4.6 / Bloomberg - Tie
- **Wisconsin:** RCP - Trump +0.1 / Bloomberg - Trump +1.0
- **Michigan:** RCP - Trump +1.0 / Bloomberg - Biden +1.0
- **Pennsylvania:** RCP - Trump +2.1 / Bloomberg - Trump +2.0
- **North Carolina:** RCP - Trump +4.7 / Bloomberg - Trump +7.0
- **Georgia:** RCP - Trump +4.1 / Bloomberg - Trump +3.0
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