Trump First Republican to Lead Race in July in Quarter Century

Donald Trump has defied a 24-year trend, emerging as the first Republican presidential candidate in a quarter-century to lead the race after the July 4 holiday, ahead of the conventions. His unexpected rise marks a pivotal moment in the 2024 election landscape, reshaping expectations and setting the stage for a highly competitive campaign.

In a stunning political turn, Donald Trump has broken a 24-year streak by becoming the first Republican presidential candidate in a quarter-century to lead the race after the July 4 holiday, heading into the conventions. According to RealClearPolitics' polling averages:

- In 2024, Trump holds a lead, marking a significant departure from past trends where Democrats typically held the advantage:

- 2020: Biden led by 9.0 points

- 2016: Clinton led by 4.7 points

- 2012: Obama led by 2.5 points

- 2008: Obama led by 4.2 points

- 2004: Kerry led by 2.0 points

This shift underscores Trump's resilience and the evolving dynamics shaping the upcoming election, setting the stage for a fiercely contested campaign season ahead.