Republicans made historic inroads with Texas' Latino voters, flipping border strongholds and raising questions about a seismic shift in political loyalties across the state.
The long-standing hope of Texas Democrats to break Republican dominance through the state's expanding Latino population took a serious hit on Tuesday night, as Republicans saw record gains among Latino voters, especially in the border regions. Donald Trump’s strong appeal within this community became a central focus, capturing 55% of the Latino vote statewide compared to Vice President Kamala Harris' 44%, according to exit polls.
Trump’s near-sweep of traditionally Democratic border counties was particularly striking. He won 14 of the 18 counties within 20 miles of the border, doubling his 2020 performance and flipping Starr County, a historically Democrat stronghold, to the GOP for the first time since 1896. In the Rio Grande Valley, all four counties went to Trump, marking a seismic shift just eight years after he captured a mere 29% of the vote in the area. Even in El Paso, while Trump did not win, he significantly narrowed the margin.
This performance marks the strongest Republican gains among border communities in at least 30 years, outpacing even the inroads made by George W. Bush in 2004. Across the country, Trump saw similar gains, becoming the first Republican presidential candidate to win Miami-Dade County in over three decades and nearly doubling his Latino vote share in Pennsylvania.
Republicans celebrated other victories beyond the presidential race, including U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz's successful defense of her seat in the Rio Grande Valley, as well as wins in state Senate and House districts that were previously controlled by Democrats. Republican Senator Ted Cruz hailed the results as a “generational change.”
For Democrats, however, there were a few bright spots. State Representative Eddie Morales Jr. retained his seat despite a narrower margin, and U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar of Laredo also fended off a GOP challenger with a much tighter win than in past elections.
Analysts attribute Trump’s success to a complex set of appeals. Joshua Blank, of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, noted that many Texas Latinos “think of themselves as multiracial” and may be less focused on racial or ethnic identity politics. Trump’s outreach targeted Hispanic men by addressing economic concerns, cultural values, and personal identity rather than a specific ethnic message. But whether this shift marks a sustained realignment remains an open question.
University of Houston political science professor Jeronimo Cortina warned that Trump and the GOP would need to deliver on promises to improve economic conditions if they hope to solidify their gains. Historical precedent, such as Latino voters shifting from George W. Bush in 2004 to Barack Obama in 2008 amid economic turmoil, suggests that their loyalty is not guaranteed.
Local races reflect the complexity of the realignment. In Val Verde County, Democrat Joe Frank Martinez retained his position as sheriff despite Trump winning the county, underscoring that many Latino voters still lean Democratic in local contests. Project Red TX, a Republican PAC focused on border counties, saw mixed results despite its aggressive campaign efforts, suggesting that Latino voter allegiance remains in flux.
Wayne Hamilton, a veteran GOP operative leading the PAC, argued that Latino support for Trump stemmed from frustrations with the Biden administration’s handling of border enforcement. However, whether these gains represent a durable shift or a fleeting phenomenon remains the key question facing both parties as they look ahead.
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