Former President Donald Trump has edged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in a critical new poll, signaling a potential shift in the 2024 race as Harris's campaign faces growing challenges and voter dissatisfaction.
Former President Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the latest New York Times/Siena poll, leading her by one point in a two-way race, 48 to 47 percent. When third-party candidates are factored in, Trump’s lead extends to two points, 47 to 45 percent. The poll, conducted with 1,695 likely voters between September 3-6, is seen as a major indicator of the race's momentum, and the results are sending shockwaves through Democratic circles.
This marks a significant shift from 2020, when Trump never trailed Joe Biden by less than eight points in this same poll, and his polling numbers never exceeded 41 percent nationally. Today, Trump stands at 48 percent, buoyed by a stronger-than-expected showing among Black and Hispanic voters, capturing 14 percent of the Black vote and 41 percent of the Hispanic vote. His favorability rating is also near Harris’s, with Trump at 46-52 percent and Harris at 46-51 percent, making her only marginally better liked.
The data paints a challenging picture for Harris. On the same day in 2020, Biden held a 7.1-point lead over Trump, a race he ultimately won by a slim margin of 45,000 votes across three states. Comparisons to 2016 are also ominous; on this day in that cycle, Hillary Clinton led by 2.8 points before Trump pulled off a stunning electoral victory.
Trump's national surge is seen as a reflection of two key dynamics: first, the strengths of his current campaign, which is hailed as his most disciplined and effective yet; and second, the weakness of Harris's campaign, which many view as disorganized and reactive. Trump, alongside running mate Senator JD Vance, has focused on a tight, issues-based campaign that has kept him on message and out of controversy. Vance, in particular, has shined as a media-savvy political figure, deflecting tough questions and maintaining composure in challenging interviews.
In contrast, Harris’s campaign is seen as struggling. Her tendency to flip-flop on key issues has left her vulnerable to attacks, and her limited media presence has raised concerns about her ability to connect with voters. Her campaign has largely relied on positioning her as the alternative to Trump, but with national concerns over crime, inflation, and international instability, voters may be looking for more than just a contrast.
Though Harris could still recover and secure victory in November, the path looks more difficult as Trump capitalizes on the administration’s missteps and his renewed political strength. With debates looming, Trump’s campaign may be in the stronger position, a shift few could have anticipated just months ago.
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