NY District Flips From +20 Biden to +7 Trump

In a surprising twist for a traditionally blue district, former President Donald Trump's resurgence against President Joe Biden hints at a seismic political shift, defying expectations and reshaping the electoral landscape.

Former President Donald Trump has surged ahead of President Joe Biden in a traditionally Democratic stronghold, according to an internal survey conducted by McLaughlin & Associates. The survey focused on New York’s Fourth Congressional District, revealing Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito leading Democrat challenger Laura Gillen 45% to 38%. Nationally, the poll indicated Trump holding a seven-point lead over Biden in the same district, with 51% support compared to Biden's 44%.

This shift suggests a potential trend of the district leaning more conservative, contrasting sharply with Biden's strong win there in the 2020 presidential election.

The survey, conducted from May 21 to 23, 2024, notably predates a significant event — Trump's conviction on all 34 counts in his business records trial in Manhattan. Surprisingly, post-conviction polls indicate that rather than harming Trump, the conviction has boosted his popularity. Recent surveys across the nation and within New York state show Trump's numbers improving, with voters seemingly unmoved by the legal developments.

Another national poll by Cygnal corroborates these findings, showing Trump leading Biden by two points in a head-to-head matchup (47% to 45%) and by three points when including third-party candidates (41% to 38% for Biden).

The McLaughlin & Associates survey involved 400 likely general election voters from New York’s Fourth District. Lara Trump, Co-Chair of the Republican National Committee, dismissed the media's focus on Trump's conviction, noting that it has failed to diminish his support and may have even bolstered it. She pointed to a notable increase in Trump's polling numbers following the verdict, attributing this to a desire among voters for a return to normalcy and a recognition of Trump's achievements, such as peace agreements in the Middle East.

In summary, these polls suggest a potential electoral shift in traditionally Democratic areas, with Trump gaining ground despite recent legal challenges.