Donald Trump has surged ahead in key battleground states, gaining a five-point lead in Arizona and maintaining advantages in Georgia and North Carolina, putting Kamala Harris’s path to 270 electoral votes in jeopardy.
Former President Donald Trump has surged ahead in key battleground states, posing a significant challenge to Vice President Kamala Harris's presidential bid, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday. The poll shows Trump gaining ground in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina — three states considered essential to both campaigns.
In Arizona, Trump’s support jumped by ten points since August, giving him a five-point lead over Harris, 50 to 45 percent. Harris, who has struggled to maintain Latino voter support in the state, faces a tough battle despite her party’s Senate candidate polling ahead. President Joe Biden won Arizona in 2020 by a slim margin of about 10,000 votes, making Trump’s current lead a troubling sign for Democrats.
North Carolina remains tight, with Trump holding a narrow two-point advantage (49-47 percent), a notable four-point swing since August. While the race is still within the margin of error, Trump’s steady lead in the state suggests he could repeat his 2020 win, when he secured North Carolina by about 75,000 votes.
In Georgia, Trump maintained a four-point lead (49-45 percent) over Harris, unchanged since August. With Biden winning Georgia by only 11,000 votes in 2020, Trump's sustained lead puts additional pressure on Harris to reclaim ground in the Peach State.
Political analysts say these three Sun Belt states are crucial to Trump’s path back to the White House. If Harris loses any combination of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, or Georgia, her path to 270 electoral votes becomes almost impossible. However, around 15 percent of voters in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina remain undecided, leaving room for shifts in the coming months.
The polls surveyed over 2,000 registered voters across the three states, with a margin of error between four and five percentage points.
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