Top Points:
Nate Silver Calls for Biden to Withdraw: Renowned pollster Nate Silver believes President Joe Biden should end his reelection campaign due to his declining ratings, particularly following a poor debate performance.
Senate Democrats Outperforming Biden in Polls: In critical swing states, Democratic Senate candidates consistently poll higher than Biden, with none trailing in their races while Biden lags behind Trump in the majority of these surveys.
Urgency for Democrats to Find a Strong Replacement: Silver suggests Democrats consider proven leaders from swing states, like Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer or Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, to replace Biden and give the party a better chance against Trump.
Full Report:
In an opinion piece for The New York Times, esteemed pollster Nate Silver argues that President Joe Biden should end his reelection campaign due to his increasingly poor polling performance compared to several Democratic Senate candidates.
Silver asserts that Biden's ratings plummeted after last week's debate, a critical moment that should have rejuvenated his campaign but instead deepened his challenges. Drawing a comparison, Silver noted that while former President Barack Obama also faced a debate loss as an incumbent, he was not 81 years old and entered the debate as a favorite, unlike Biden who now has just a 35% chance of winning.
Highlighting post-debate polls, Silver's "2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast" reveals that Biden's performance is worrying. However, Democrats might find solace in the more favorable polling of their Senate candidates. In key swing states such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Democratic Senate candidates have consistently polled higher than Biden.
Out of 47 nonpartisan surveys conducted since Biden and Trump emerged as the definitive nominees, 46 show Senate candidates outperforming Biden. Notably, none of these Senate candidates trail in their races, while Biden lags behind Trump in the majority of these polls.
Silver's analysis highlights the discrepancy in voter support, showing significant underperformance by Biden even in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada, where Senate nominees have stronger support. He points out that these Senate candidates are familiar to voters and are actively campaigning, unlike hypothetical presidential matchups.
For the Democratic Party to have a fighting chance, Silver suggests considering candidates who have demonstrated their political prowess in swing states, such as Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, or Maryland Gov. Wes Moore.
While acknowledging that his proposal to replace Biden is not ideal, Silver stresses the urgency for Democrats to select a candidate capable of effectively challenging Trump. He concludes that any Democratic nominee would face an uphill battle, not due to Trump's popularity, but because of the difficulty in preparing a replacement candidate on short notice.
Original Story by Sandy Fitzgerald, Newsmax
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