Former President Donald Trump is gaining momentum in a tight race against Vice President Kamala Harris, with recent polls showing him edging ahead in key battleground states and poised to reclaim the White House in 2024.
Former President Donald Trump holds a narrow advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris in a close race for the White House, according to recent polling.
Two separate polls, one from Emerson College/Nexstar Media and another from Fabrizio Ward & Associates, reveal that Harris faces steeper challenges than Trump, both nationally and across key battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This is notable given Trump's historical tendency to outperform polls during elections.
For example, in Arizona, Trump leads Harris 50 percent to 47 percent, according to an Emerson College poll conducted after the Democratic National Convention (DNC) on August 25-28. The poll sampled 720 likely voters, with a credibility interval of ±3.6 percent. Two percent of voters remain undecided.
In Georgia, the race is even tighter, with Harris slightly ahead by one point, at 49 percent to Trump's 48 percent, with three percent undecided. However, momentum on the ground appears to favor Trump, especially with the strong backing of Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, who has lent his political influence to support Trump's campaign. Emerson's poll in Georgia included 800 likely voters with a credibility interval of ±3.4 percent.
In Michigan, polling results diverge. The Emerson College poll shows Harris at 50 percent and Trump at 47 percent, with three percent undecided. On the other hand, a Fabrizio Ward poll conducted during the DNC (August 19-21) reports Trump leading Harris 48 percent to 46 percent, with six percent undecided. Michigan was the epicenter of a significant protest movement against the Biden-Harris administration, where more than 100,000 voters registered their dissatisfaction with the administration's policies, particularly on the Israel-Hamas conflict, by casting protest votes in the primary. This movement remains a potential threat to Harris’s chances in November if changes are not made to address these concerns.
The Emerson poll also indicates that the race is incredibly tight in other battleground states. In Nevada, Harris holds a slim 49 percent to 48 percent lead over Trump, with three percent undecided. The poll surveyed 1,168 likely voters and has a credibility interval of ±2.8 percent. Similarly, in North Carolina, Trump holds a narrow lead of 49 percent to 48 percent, with a credibility interval of ±3.5 percent.
Pennsylvania, one of the most pivotal states, is currently deadlocked, with both Harris and Trump tied at 48 percent, and three percent of voters undecided. Fabrizio Ward's poll shows Trump slightly ahead, leading Harris 47 percent to 46 percent, with seven percent undecided. Emerson sampled 950 likely voters in Pennsylvania, with a credibility interval of ±3.1 percent.
Wisconsin presents another conflicting picture between the two polls. The Emerson poll finds Trump ahead by a single point, 49 percent to 48 percent, while the Fabrizio Ward poll shows Harris leading 49 percent to 45 percent. Wisconsin, like Michigan, has seen a significant protest movement against the administration. Over 48,000 Arab Americans, Muslims, young voters, and progressive voters cast "uninstructed" ballots in the Democratic primary to protest the administration's handling of the Israel-Hamas situation. This protest vote was more than double Biden’s margin of victory in Wisconsin in 2020 and could further jeopardize Harris’s standing in the state.
Nationally, Emerson's polling results suggest that Harris could secure 263 electoral votes compared to Trump's 256, with everything coming down to Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes. A tight race here could determine the election's outcome, underscoring the significance of the current deadlock in the Keystone State.
However, as Democratic strategist James Carville warns, close polls should concern Democrats. He pointed out that Trump often underpolls, and races like those in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where Trump surged late in 2020, could once again pose challenges for Harris.
In 2020, Biden narrowly won all three of these states, with Wisconsin decided by less than one percent, Michigan by just under three percent, and Pennsylvania by 1.2 percent. The 2024 race is shaping up to be similarly tight, making every vote critical for both candidates.
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