New data from AdImpact reveals that $71.3 million has been spent on campaign ads for the 2024 election so far, with Democrats outspending Republicans $49.2 million to $22.1 million. Notably, 30% of the total spending has been concentrated in Pennsylvania, a critical battleground state.
Trump's Edge in Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania remains a toss-up but is trending towards former President Donald Trump, who leads President Joe Biden by 2.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average. Trump’s lead has been consistent, bolstered by a Cook Political Report poll showing him up by 3 points. Except for brief periods, Trump has maintained a modest lead since RealClearPolitics began tracking Pennsylvania.
Biden Campaign's Concerns: The Biden campaign is increasingly worried about Pennsylvania's pivotal role in the presidential race. If Trump holds the states he won in 2020 and secures swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, he could return to the White House. If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he would need to win Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota, where he holds narrow leads or trails Biden.
Shifts in Voter Demographics: Trump's support has been growing among young and nonwhite voters who are abandoning Biden. A New York Times-Siena College-Philadelphia Inquirer poll indicates significant drops in support for Biden among these demographics in Pennsylvania. Young voter support has decreased from 62% to 47%, and support among black and Hispanic voters has fallen from 71% to 57%.
Biden’s underperformance is largely attributed to economic issues, despite his efforts to address inflation and economic challenges. With Election Day approaching, Biden faces an uphill battle to regain ground in Pennsylvania and convince voters that his policies have improved their lives.
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