Virginia, once a steadfast bastion of Blue, now teeters on the edge of uncertainty, emerging as a pivotal battleground in the race for the White House. As President Biden and former President Trump lock horns in a dead heat, the state stands poised to dictate the fate of the November election, igniting passions and raising stakes like never before.
Virginia is now joining the ranks of battleground states in the upcoming Presidential election, a shift from its traditionally Democratic leanings. Recent polling indicates President Biden facing challenges in the state. In a head-to-head matchup with former President Donald Trump, they stand at a deadlock with 42% each. When other candidates are factored in, Biden maintains a slight edge of two points (40% to 38%), as per the Roanoke College Poll conducted by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR), interviewing 711 likely voters in Virginia between May 12 and May 21, 2024, with a margin of error of 4.24%.
While only 2% of likely voters claim to be undecided this early in the campaign, a significant portion (14% in a two-way race, 20% in a five-way race) express intentions to vote for candidates other than Biden or Trump. This marks the first time the Roanoke College Poll has depicted the candidates in a tie, despite previous polls indicating their proximity within the margin of error in February 2024 and November 2023.
The survey reveals that 64% of likely voters are highly certain of their vote choice, with another 28% expressing moderate certainty. Enthusiasm for voting is relatively high, with 52% very enthusiastic and 27% somewhat enthusiastic, though 20% exhibit lower levels of enthusiasm. The economy emerges as the dominant concern among respondents, cited by 44%, followed by immigration (14%) and abortion (13%), surpassing foreign affairs (8%) and crime (5%).
Regarding the legitimacy of past elections, 63% of likely voters believe Biden legitimately won in 2020, while 34% attribute his victory to election irregularities. Conversely, 73% think Trump legitimately won in 2016, although 21% believe he colluded with Russians. Partisan divisions are evident, with 94% of Republicans asserting Trump's legitimate win in 2016 compared to 53% of Democrats, and 91% of Democrats affirming Biden's legitimate win in 2020 while only 29% of Republicans concur.
Concerns loom over potential violent protests post-election, regardless of the outcome. More respondents express worry about potential violence from Trump supporters if Biden wins (36% very concerned, 31% somewhat concerned), though there's also apprehension about violence from Biden supporters if Trump secures victory (19% very concerned, 29% somewhat concerned). Democrats predominantly fear Trump supporters' reactions (54% very concerned, 30% somewhat concerned), while Republicans exhibit similar levels of concern regardless of the election's outcome.
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