Donald Trump is pulling ahead of Joe Biden in pivotal swing states, signaling a dramatic shift in the 2024 presidential race. This surprising development, following Trump's recent conviction, could reshape the electoral landscape, especially as key demographics that once firmly supported Biden begin to lean towards Trump.
Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in six critical swing states, according to an Emerson College poll. However, Biden has managed to draw even with Trump in Minnesota, a state that has consistently supported the Democratic nominee since 1976.
This poll is one of the first to be published following Trump's May conviction on 34 counts in his business records trial by a Manhattan jury.
When compared to Emerson's April polling, the results indicate that Trump's advantage in swing state polling has remained largely stable despite his conviction.
Seven states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina—are expected to determine the outcome of the presidential election, as noted by longtime Democratic adviser Doug Sosnik in the New York Times. If Trump wins one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin, Biden's path to securing 270 electoral votes will become significantly more challenging.
The June Emerson poll reported the following results:
Arizona: 47% Trump (+4), 43% Biden
Georgia: 45% Trump (+4), 41% Biden
Michigan: 46% Trump (+1), 45% Biden
Minnesota: 45% Trump, 45% Biden
Nevada: 46% Trump (+2), 43% Biden
Pennsylvania: 47% Trump (+2), 45% Biden
Wisconsin: 47% Trump (+3), 44% Biden
The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from June 12-18, 2024, with a margin of error of ± 3 percent.
Trump is performing well among several demographics that supported Biden in 2020. For instance, Biden's support among women has dropped to its lowest level for any Democratic candidate since 2004, according to a Times analysis. Trump now holds an eight-point lead over Biden among female voters.
Trump's increasing support among women is reflected in his rising popularity among black and Hispanic voters, two demographics traditionally loyal to Democrats. Polling from Gallup and Siena College shows that Democratic support among these groups has fallen to its lowest point in 60 years. Consequently, black and Hispanic men may vote for Trump in proportions not seen since the 1950s.
The Wall Street Journal found that 30 percent of black men and 11 percent of black women plan to vote for Trump in 2024. In comparison, only 12 percent of black men voted for Trump in 2020. While no comparable 2020 polling exists for black men, six percent of black women said they would vote for Trump in 2020, according to the Associated Press, five points lower than the Journal's 2024 findings.
Among Hispanic voters, Trump leads Biden by five points (39-34 percent), a significant increase from 2020, when Biden led 65-32 percent, according to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll.
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