As Convention Begins Trump Gains Big Ground in Wisconsin

As Republicans convene in Wisconsin, a new poll reveals former President Trump leading President Biden by six points, signaling a significant shift in the battleground state ahead of the 2024 election.

As Republicans gather in Wisconsin for their National Convention, recent polling indicates promising news for former President Donald Trump in the Badger State. According to an AARP/Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research poll, Trump has taken a six-point lead over President Joe Biden in a crowded field.

The poll, conducted after Biden's poor debate performance in late June and published Tuesday, shows 44 percent of likely Wisconsin voters support Trump in a five-way race, while 38 percent back Biden.

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. secures nine percent of the vote, followed by Green Party candidate Jill Stein with three percent, and Libertarian Chase Oliver with one percent. Additionally, five percent of respondents remain undecided.

Trump holds a notable advantage over Biden among independent voters, leading 36 percent to 31 percent, with 24 percent of independents supporting third-party candidates.

Moreover, Trump shows stronger support within his party compared to Biden. Among Republican respondents, 93 percent support Trump, while 86 percent of Democrats back Biden, indicating an enthusiasm gap. Two percent of Democrats would vote for Trump, while one percent of Republicans would break for Biden.

In a hypothetical two-way race, Trump maintains a significant lead over Biden. He garners 50 percent of the vote, placing him five points ahead of Biden, who draws 45 percent. Trump's edge with independents narrows slightly to a net four points. His support among Republicans rises to 97 percent, while Biden's support among Democrats increases to 91 percent.

The poll also assessed Wisconsin's Senate race, where Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) faces Republican businessman Eric Hovde. Baldwin leads with 50 percent support compared to Hovde's 45 percent, holding a 13-point advantage among independents.

Commissioned by AARP, the survey was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research from June 28 to July 2, 2024. It included samples from 600 likely voters, with a margin of error of ± four percentage points.