Could New Hampshire's electoral landscape be on the brink of a seismic shift? Recent polling data suggests a startling twist in the traditionally Democratic stronghold, raising questions about Joe Biden's grip on the state and hinting at potential challenges for the incumbent in the upcoming election cycle.
Democrats have historically dominated New Hampshire's Electoral College votes, securing victory in seven out of the last eight presidential elections, notably including Joe Biden's sizable win over Donald Trump in 2020. However, a recent poll by NHJournal/Praecones Analytica indicates a surprising turn of events, with Biden now tied with Trump in the state. This development puts Biden at risk of being the first Democrat to lose New Hampshire since Al Gore in 2000.
The survey, conducted among 862 registered voters during the week of May 15-20, reveals a dead heat between Biden and Trump at 36 percent each, with 14 percent supporting independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and another 12 percent opting for none of the listed candidates.
These findings shed light on Biden's unusual travel pattern, with his second visit to New Hampshire in two months, a departure from the norm for a Democratic president during a competitive national election. His upcoming appearance in Nashua follows the announcement of over $3 million in Brownfield Grants for community revitalization in New Hampshire, including Nashua and Jaffrey.
This shift in focus underscores the expanding battleground map for the 2024 election, potentially bringing New Hampshire into play for Trump, according to veteran New Hampshire GOP strategist Jim Merrill.
Dr. Jonathan Klingler of Praecones Analytica attributes Biden's struggles to a loss of support among swing voters, with independents splitting their support among Biden, Trump, Kennedy, and other candidates in a statistically indistinguishable manner.
Comparing with exit polls from the 2020 election, Klingler notes a significant decrease in support for Biden among independent voters in New Hampshire, potentially impacting his electoral prospects.
Biden's challenges extend beyond New Hampshire, with close races emerging in traditionally Democratic strongholds like Minnesota and Nevada. Losing a state in deeply blue New England would pose a significant setback for the incumbent.
Furthermore, Biden faces internal challenges within the Democratic Party, as evidenced by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s considerable support among Democrats compared to Republicans. Kennedy's progressive message resonates strongly with Democratic voters, particularly those who previously favored Bernie Sanders.
Some political observers speculate that Biden's vulnerability among swing voters could be attributed, in part, to his criticism of New Hampshire's primary system and his perceived insults towards the state, potentially alienating average voters despite understanding among party elites.
Overall, these developments signal a shifting political landscape with implications for both the upcoming election and the internal dynamics of the Democratic Party.
.png)